The Impeachment Dilemma: A Case of Cognitive Dissonance for Republicans

How and why do people change their views on strongly held beliefs, such as one’s support for Trump?  One theory in social – psychology which bears on this question is called “cognitive dissonance”.  According to this well accepted theory, if a person can be induced to voluntarily take a public position counter to their beliefs then they will revise their beliefs. 

Social psychologists have demonstrated this phenomenon in countless experiments in which subjects are asked about their beliefs, then paid a small amount of money to publicly portray a position counter to their beliefs and asked again about their beliefs.  These studies show that people typically change their beliefs in the direction of their public behavior.   The underlying motivation for the change is that everyone wants to see themselves as logical beings acting rationally.   

The dissonance created between the belief and behavior must be resolved so that the person can present him or herself as a rational being.  And, since the behavior has already occurred, only the belief can change to achieve consistency between cognition and behavior; between what is believed versus what is publicly said or done.  The belief is not completely changed, of course, but revised just enough to justify the public behavior

This is the dilemma which many Republican Senators face during the impeachment trial.  Most moderate Republican Senators held strong reservations if not outright negative views of Trump in the past.  During the last election cycle, however, most were induced into making public statements in favor of him by promises of support for their own candidacy.  This dissonance between their internal beliefs and public statements about Trump creates psychological stress which each Senator needs to resolve for themselves.  Resolving the dissonance is necessary so that they can continue to present themselves to others as logical and rationally people, as well as see themselves that way.     

How will they resolve this inconsistency between their private beliefs and their public statements?  Perhaps some will follow Machiavelli and calculate that the short-term political gain “trumped” their beliefs – which remain unchanged.  But, cognitive dissonance theory predicts otherwise.  Psychology predicts that they will revise their beliefs to become more in line with their public statements and behavior.  Likely, many will come to genuinely believe that Trump is not as bad as they previously thought and does not deserve to be impeached. 

Yet, all Senators hold strong beliefs in the principles upon which our country was founded.  Voting not to convict Trump of inciting insurrection against the country creates stressful cognitive dissonance in each Senator by violating their strongly held beliefs in protecting the Country, the Constitution and the rule of law.  Cognitive dissonance theory predicts that Senators who vote not guilty will modify their interpretation of the Constitution and the law to justify their vote against impeachment.    

It may be painful to watch how each Senator twists their strongly held belief in law and order in a desperate effort to convince voters, and themselves, that they are logical people acting rationally.   Arguing a narrow legal definition of incitement or citing a single word in the Constitution to claim that an ex-president can’t be impeached are ways Republican Senators narrow their prior beliefs to align with their current behaviors.  With these machinations most will be able to flip their minds inside out and come to genuinely believe that they are defending the Constitution by voting not to convict someone who committed treason against the Constitution.      

With a myopic focus on legal wording, they maintain alignment between their personal beliefs and action, but miss the larger point that President Trump refused to take any action to stop an armed insurrection from which he stood to gain and thus failed in his sworn duty to protect and defend the Constitution of the United States of America.   

Weakened support for Constitution and the rule of law in the U.S. Senate could be the most damaging long-term consequence of the Trump impeachment trial.